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NYT/Siena Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race; Governor's Race Tight

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · States · GSM News

AUSTIN, Texas — A New York Times/Siena College poll released Oct. 3 shows Democrat Talarico leading Republican Paxton 51-45 in the Texas U.S. Senate race, while Democrat Hinojosa leads incumbent Gov. Abbott 49-46 in the governor's race, USA Today reported on Oct. 5. The numbers inject fresh drama into Texas, long a Republican stronghold.

Talarico's six-point Senate lead exceeded many observers' expectations. Paxton's camp questioned the poll's methodology, citing more favorable internal data; Talarico's team said the lead reflects voters' appetite for change and vowed to press the advantage.

The governor's race is tighter — Hinojosa's three-point edge sits within the margin of error. Abbott enjoys higher name recognition and a fundraising advantage as the incumbent, but the challenger's surge has Republicans on alert.

Analysts say Texas could become the biggest surprise battleground of the midterms if the polling holds — while cautioning that Texas polls have a history of missing the mark, and a month remains until the Nov. 3 election.

Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)

Photo: 德州议会大厦(奥斯汀),Wikimedia Commons,CC0

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