Bond Market's MOVE Index Climbs to 16-Month High; Analysts Warn Stock Calm May Be 'Calm Before the Storm'
The MOVE index, which gauges expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, keeps climbing: it surged 46% in June and now hovers around 116, near its March high and the loftiest reading since April 2025, while the equity VIX and bitcoin volatility stay subdued.
Macro watchers note the divergence — the MOVE making higher lows while the VIX makes lower highs. "The MOVE leads: it flashed turbulence before the VIX in 2022, in 2023, and at the start of the Iran war. Stocks are usually the last to get the message," said Kurt S. Altrichter, author of the RiskSIGNAL Report. The MOVE — the bond market's version of the VIX — measures expected swings in Treasury yields over the next month using options on 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year bonds. Its rise is already lifting corporate borrowing costs. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting, due Wednesday, could bring fresh volatility to bonds. (CoinDesk)
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
