UCLA Study: 2024 Set a Global Extreme-Rainfall Record, and 2027 Could Top It
New UCLA research shows that 2024 broke the record for global extreme rainfall, with human-caused warming explaining about 40% of the increase, and that parallels between the currently forming El Niño and the 2024 event suggest 2027 could set another record. The study, published October 9 in Science Advances and led by Chad Thackeray, a climate scientist in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Center for Climate Science, found that the occurrence of global precipitation extremes in 2024 was 20% higher than the baseline, surpassing the strong El Niños of 1983, 1998 and 2016, with rare simultaneous tropical warming in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans also contributing. "Between El Niño and climate change, 2024 set a global record for the number of days with heavy precipitation," Thackeray said. "We're getting into uncharted territory for how warm the coming El Niño is going to be, but the conditions are there for another record in 2027." Unlike earlier strong El Niños, when heavy precipitation was concentrated in the first half of the year and dissipated as the tropical Pacific cooled in summer, extreme rain continued in 2024 even as the Pacific cooled, surging again in August — a surge the researchers tie largely to climate change, noting that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and the chance of heavy rainfall is increasing over time. By midcentury, Thackeray said, extreme rainfall like that of 2024 would be expected almost every other year.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 太平洋风暴系统卫星图（示意），GOES 影像：CSU/CIRA 与 NOAA，Wikimedia Commons，公有领域
