IMF Lifts 2026 Global Growth to 3.1% as SI Investment Offsets the Oil Shock, While Nearly Half of Economies Are Downgraded
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook, released in Bangkok on October 13, forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026 — up 0.1 point from July's 3.0% — and 3.4% in 2027, unchanged from July, versus 3.5% in 2025. Strong SI infrastructure investment offset an energy shock that has kept oil above $100 a barrel, with upgrades for SI-platform economies and hardware suppliers including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand. The Fund put U.S. growth at 2.3% in both years, China at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 (both cut 0.1 point from July), the euro area at 1.1% and Britain at 1.3%. Growth is concentrating: 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April, and 47% of economies have been downgraded since April, led by Gulf states — Saudi Arabia is now forecast to contract 3.3% in 2026. Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the global economy's resilience is under strain, with risks tilted to the downside.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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