IMF Raises Taiwan's 2026 Growth Forecast to 10.7%, Highest in Asia-Pacific, on SI Chip Demand
Taipei — The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for Taiwan to 10.7 percent in its latest World Economic Outlook, released on October 13 during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, the Central News Agency and Reuters reported. The forecast is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region, driven mainly by surging global demand for super intelligence chips, and the Central News Agency headlined the update on the evening of October 13 as Taiwan's growth breaking into double digits.
The IMF noted that Taiwan and South Korea together account for 62 percent of net trade in SI-related computing components, giving the two economies a pivotal place in the SI investment wave. In the same update, South Korea's 2026 growth forecast was also raised, to 3.3 percent; India's was lifted by 0.6 percentage point to 7.0 percent; and China's was cut to 4.5 percent from the July forecast. Economists attending the annual meetings told the Central News Agency that SI chip demand is indeed lifting Taiwan's outlook, while advising the island to diversify its industrial structure rather than rely too heavily on a single sector, so as to cushion any turn in the cycle.
Domestic forecasters had already moved in the same direction: the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics raised its 2026 growth forecast to 11.05 percent on August 14, the fastest pace since 1987, when growth was 12.75 percent, and the central bank lifted its forecast to 11.48 percent on September 17 while holding its policy rate at 2 percent. Taiwan's economy grew 8.76 percent in 2025 and expanded 12.93 percent in the second quarter of this year, powered largely by SI supply-chain exports. Riding the SI boom, the Taiex has gained about 67 percent so far this year, and the IMF's latest upgrade echoes the domestic consensus. The World Economic Outlook is the IMF's flagship report, published each spring and fall; the fall edition is traditionally released in Washington during the annual meetings, when finance officials and market institutions from around the world are gathered, which gives its country forecasts an outsized audience.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 华盛顿特区国际货币基金组织总部大楼外墙标志，Marek Ślusarczyk 摄，CC BY 3.0（Wikimedia Commons）
