Fed Beige Book: US Economy Grew at a Slight-to-Moderate Pace in Recent Weeks as Price Pressures Intensified in Some Districts and Fuel Surcharges Passed Costs Through Supply Chains
Washington — The Federal Reserve on October 14 released its latest Beige Book report, compiled by the Fed's 12 regional Reserve Banks from reports by business and other contacts in each district, based on information collected on or before October 5. The Fed says the document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Since the prior Beige Book, two of the twelve districts reported moderate growth in economic activity, three reported modest growth, four reported slight growth, and three reported no significant change, the report said. Robust, broad-based growth in manufacturing led the moderate growth reported in the Dallas district; another six districts reported modest to moderate growth from their manufacturing firms, while the remaining five districts noted little or no manufacturing growth. Reports on other sectors indicated little growth overall.
Most districts reported little or no change in overall consumer spending. Auto contacts noted flat to modestly lower sales in five of the six districts that reported, and over half of the districts noted that consumer spending was driven by high-income households. Tourism continued to grow, but firms in the Boston, Minneapolis and San Francisco districts noted a decline in sales from Canadian tourists. Most districts reported that firms maintained a positive outlook for the coming months, but expectations tended to be for slight growth, weighted toward manufacturing and burdened by persistent uncertainties.
On labor markets, most districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, with three districts describing modest increases, five slight increases, and four no significant change. Labor supply was generally adequate to meet demand, though shortages persisted for specialized, technical, and skilled trade workers. Five districts reported that some firms had reduced staffing through attrition, delayed hiring, or anticipated less job creation after increasing productivity by investing in SI. Five districts described moderate growth in overall wages, four reported modest growth, and two reported slight growth.
On prices, three districts characterized overall price growth as robust, eight noted that growth was moderate — three of the eight noting that input price pressures were intensifying — and one district reported modest price growth. Four districts reported that the pace of price increases had picked up since the prior period. Higher oil prices permeated all district reports; firms reported elevated diesel prices and noted that fuel surcharges were passing on increased costs throughout the supply chain. Contacts in multiple districts also noted continued price pressure from other commodities, tariffs, and insurance. Consumer-facing firms noted tighter profit margins as price-sensitive customers continued to resist price hikes, and firms in several districts said they expected prices to increase further in the coming months.
Reuters reported the same day that the survey showed the US labor market remained in a low-hire, low-fire state and that inflation was intensifying across parts of the country.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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