Confindustria Lifts Italy's 2026 Growth Forecast to 1%, Sees Slowdown to 0.6% in 2027
The improved outlook this year is thanks in large measure to European Union post-COVID-19 funds (PNRR), which have boosted investments and ensured firmer-than-expected growth in the first two quarters, Confindustria said in its twice-yearly report. It said turmoil in the Middle East had driven up global oil prices by less than expected, and that in Italy the pass-through from energy costs to prices of other goods and services has been weaker than feared. However, quarterly growth in the second half of the year will be weak.
Growth will slow to 0.6% in 2027 due to the end of the PNRR, the recent rise in oil prices, and higher inflation and interest rates, the lobby said. Confindustria's 2026 growth forecast of 1%is in line with that of Giorgia Meloni's government; for 2027 the government forecasts 0.8%.Growth last year came in at 0.6%.
Confindustria forecast the 2026 budget deficit-to-GDP ratio at 2.9%, in line with the government. It sharply hiked its forecast for Italy's 2026 average inflation rate to 3.2% from 2.5%, and forecast inflation would ease to 2.2% in 2027.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 意大利首都罗马的斗兽场（资料图）。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，Dennis G. Jarvis 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0 授权
