IMF Sees UAE Economy Shrinking 3.9% in 2026 as Dubai Unveils Dh2.1 Trillion Project Pipeline
The International Monetary Fund expects the UAE economy to shrink by 3.9% this year, before growing by 7.7% in 2027, according to its October World Economic Outlook, as reported by The National and Khaleej Times.
The new forecast is a seven-percentage-point downgrade from the 3.1% growth the fund expected in April. The National reported that the IMF's expected recovery depends on shipping routes returning to normal, with its scenario assuming a gradual reopening of Hormuz from March next year and pre-conflict conditions returning by October; the fund expects uncertainty to remain elevated throughout next year. The outlook also puts UAE inflation at 4.5% this year, compared with 1.3% in 2025, according to Aletihad.
On Tuesday, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid set out Dubai's project plans. Figures presented at the Mohammed bin Rashid Leadership Forum put the value of projects under way at Dh2.1 trillion, including Dh1.1 trillion in real estate projects through 2030, Dh128 billion for Al Maktoum International Airport and Dh328 billion for Emirates and flydubai fleet expansion, Gulf News reported, citing the Dubai Media Office. "Our journey is accelerating, not slowing down," Sheikh Mohammed wrote on X.
The forecast and the project plans cover different things: economic output over a year, and investment commitments extending well beyond it; the projects' contribution to output depends on when work is carried out.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：阿布扎比滨海大道天际线（黄昏）。摄影：FritzDaCat，CC BY-SA 3.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
