NRF Forecasts U.S. Holiday Sales to Grow 4.2% to $1.013 Trillion in November and December
WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation on October 15 released its annual holiday forecast, projecting that U.S. retail sales during the November 1–December 31 holiday season will grow 4.2% over 2025 to $1.013 trillion. Holiday sales in 2025 rose 3.1% to $972 billion.
NRF's holiday measure excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, and its forecast is based on economic modeling that incorporates consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year's estimated 356,000, and said retailers remain measured in seasonal hiring amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said in the release that spending momentum heading into the season is strong and consumers remain a bright spot in the economy, while adding that inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.
Separately, Reuters reported the same day that a Deloitte survey of about 4,000 U.S. consumers found average household holiday spending could rise 4% to $1,654 this year, driven by increased spending among Gen Z and millennial shoppers.
(Sources: National Retail Federation release, October 15, 2026; Deloitte survey figures as reported by Reuters)
Source: 全美零售联合会官方
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：迈阿密一家商场内的假日季装饰与购物区（资料照片，已裁切去除促销牌）。Phillip Pessar摄，CC BY 2.0，取自维基共享资源。File photo of holiday decor inside a Miami-area store, cropped. Photo by Phillip Pessar, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
