Producer Prices Jump 1.3% in September, the Most Since 2022, as Energy Costs Surge
WASHINGTON — The U.S. producer price index rose 1.3% in September from the previous month, the largest monthly gain since March 2022 and far above the 0.6% increase expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the Labor Department said on October 15. From a year earlier, producer prices rose 6.3%, the biggest annual increase since December 2022, up from 5.6% in August. As GSM previewed this morning, the data landed the same day as the September retail sales report, and it showed wholesale inflation pressure driven mainly by surging energy costs.
Final-demand energy prices jumped 10.8% in the month, with gasoline up 20.3% and diesel and heating oil rising by roughly a fifth as well; energy accounted for more than 80% of the monthly increase in the headline index. Food prices rose 1.2%. Core producer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7% on the month and 5.0% from a year earlier — also above forecasts — suggesting higher fuel costs are spilling into other categories. Final-demand goods prices rose 2.6%, while services rose 0.8%, the fastest since January, as trade margins climbed 1.4% and transportation and warehousing costs rose 3.4%.
Separately, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating expectations but slowing from August's revised 1.3% gain. According to Associated Press analysis, gas stations accounted for about 71% of the month's dollar increase, with gasoline station sales up 6.4% on higher prices. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose just 0.2%, and the "control group" that feeds into GDP calculations rose only 0.1%. Sales at eating and drinking places rose 1.1%, while auto sales edged up 0.2%.
Together with Wednesday's consumer price report — headline CPI up 3.7% from a year earlier — the data has intensified debate over a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 meeting. According to CME's FedWatch tool, futures markets now price the probability of a 25-basis-point hike this month at roughly 30%, up from less than 20% a week earlier. The Fed last raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 位于华盛顿特区的美国劳工部总部大楼（弗朗西斯·帕金斯大楼，Frances Perkins Building）。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，ajay_suresh 摄，CC BY 2.0 授权。 The Frances Perkins Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Labor, in Washington, D.C. Photo: ajay_suresh / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
