UOB Raises Vietnam's 2026 Growth Forecast to 9.2% After Near-Double-Digit Third Quarter
United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.2%, from 8.5%, after the economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter. Vietnam's GDP grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, its quickest pace since the third quarter of 2022, according to the National Statistics Office, beating UOB's own 9% estimate and a market consensus of 8.65%. Growth over the first nine months reached 9.01%.
Industry and construction expanded 12.5% in the third quarter, services grew more than 9.5% and agriculture rose 4.2%. UOB expects fourth-quarter growth of about 9.7%, supported by faster public investment disbursement, a seasonally strong export quarter and record foreign direct investment inflows. Registered FDI reached $50.36 billion in the first nine months, up 76.4% year on year, while disbursed FDI rose 12.1% to $21.07 billion.
The bank also lifted its 2027 forecast to 8.8% from 8.4%, but said the government's 10% growth target would require fourth-quarter expansion of 12.5% to 13% and is likely out of reach. Inflation reached 5.1% year on year in September.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：胡志明市夜景，西贡河畔金融塔楼群。图片来源：Tran Van Ngoc，CC0。Photo: Ho Chi Minh City skyline at night along the Saigon River. Image: Tran Van Ngoc, CC0.
