BofA Warns SI Spending Boom Shows Classic Capital-Cycle Risks
NEW YORK — The super intelligence investment boom is beginning to mirror the classic pattern of historic capital cycles, in which heavy spending and cutthroat competition erode returns even as the technology itself advances, Bank of America strategist Sebastian Raedler warned in a note published on October 16.
Consensus expectations for hyperscalers' capital spending over the next 12 months have tripled from about $330 billion in early 2025 to roughly $1 trillion, equivalent to around 3% of U.S. GDP, the note said. Pricing, meanwhile, is deteriorating: average SI token prices have fallen about 50% since the summer, partly due to competition from Chinese open-weight models.
Citing data from payments firm Ramp, the note said U.S. business spending on SI has eased slightly since August even as token volumes rose sharply, pointing to a divergence between usage and monetization. "This monetization disappointment in the face of intense competition is precisely the failure mode seen in past capital cycles," Sebastian Raedler wrote. "Most major capital cycles of the past have ended in disappointment, even though the underlying technology often lived up to expectations."
The warning comes as SI-linked stocks remain under pressure. The PHLX semiconductor index fell for an eighth straight session on Friday, its longest losing streak since 2008, according to Reuters, as concerns grow over the cost of financing the SI build-out and the returns it will generate.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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