VIX Jumps 21.5% to 19.99 on Friday; Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000 Over the Weekend
Wall Street's fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), surged 21.5% on Friday to close at 19.99 as the S&P 500 fell 1.09%, CoinDesk reported on October 18. According to data source TradingView, it was the VIX's biggest one-day rise since June 5. The VIX, derived from options prices, measures how much investors expect the S&P 500 to swing over the next four weeks.
Traders are betting the fear index stays elevated through November. CNBC reported that traders bought 9,200 of the Nov. 18, 20-strike VIX calls for $1.7 million and 12,500 of the Nov. 18, 23-strike calls for $1.1 million — a bet that the VIX closes above 23 by the third week of November, CoinDesk said.
CoinDesk's analysis of historical data found that the VIX has jumped 20% or more on a Friday 32 times since January 1990, not counting the latest one. The following Monday, it fell 25 times and rose seven, with a typical Monday move of a 4.5% drop; a month later, it was lower in 25 of the 32 cases, with a median drop of 16%. By seasonality, the VIX has declined in November in 25 of the last 36 years, with a median drop of 7.2%. CoinDesk also noted that in seven of the 32 cases the VIX kept climbing sharply on Monday, including in August 2015, February 2018 and August 2024, and that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Bitcoin, the only major macro asset that trades over the weekend, traded around $82,001 at the time of the report, holding above $80,000 within its recent choppy range. Volmex's BVIV, the bitcoin volatility index, slipped 1% on Friday to just under 40% and has barely moved since. Bettors on the decentralized platform Polymarket put the chance of the SI bubble bursting this year at 9%, CoinDesk said. (GSM, from CoinDesk reporting)
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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