China's Q3 GDP Growth Picks Up to 4.5%, Beating Forecasts, as Exports Offset Weak Domestic Demand
BEIJING — China's National Bureau of Statistics released third-quarter data on Monday (Beijing time) showing gross domestic product grew 4.5% year on year, beating the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll and improving from 4.3% in the second quarter. GDP rose 1.2% from the previous quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, the economy expanded 4.6%, at the lower end of the official annual target range of 4.5% to 5.0%.
Industrial output rose 5.5% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from 5.2% in August and marking the quickest pace in six months, while value added in high-tech manufacturing grew 14.3% in the first nine months. Customs figures showed chip export values more than doubling over the nine months and a trade surplus of $938.1 billion. Retail sales grew 1.1% in September, above expectations, though domestic demand remained weak overall.
Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, property investment dropped 20.6%, and infrastructure investment declined 4.2%. The statistics bureau said insufficient domestic demand remained a relatively prominent problem. UOB economist Ho Woei Chen told Reuters that external demand was still keeping the economy afloat, while the IMF earlier this month trimmed its 2026 China growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5%.
Reuters also reported that policymakers have recently expanded support for homebuyers and arranged 550 billion yuan in unused government debt quota to ease local-government fiscal pressure and expand infrastructure investment, while holding off on large-scale stimulus. (GSM reporting based on Reuters and National Bureau of Statistics releases)
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 宁波舟山港穿山港区集装箱码头（资料图）。照片：Nbfreeh，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0。Container terminal at the Chuanshan port area of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port (file photo). Photo: Nbfreeh, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
