Reuters Poll: Expectations Build for a Bank of England Rate Hike in November as Economists Lift Inflation Forecasts
LONDON — Expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November are building, according to a Reuters poll of economists published October 15. Nearly half of the 61 economists surveyed — 30 — expected one more rise in the first quarter of 2027, and the poll raised its UK inflation forecasts to an average of 3.6 percent this quarter and 3.8 percent next, with 3.0 percent for 2027, up from 3.3, 3.2 and 2.5 percent in last month's poll.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey dropped a clear hint at the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting that higher rates were likely on the way. Sonali Punhani, UK economist at Bank of America, recently changed her view from hold to a hike, saying the bigger pickup in inflation is still ahead. The BoE has kept borrowing costs on hold since the start of the Iran war, while the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve have already begun raising rates.
The poll modestly raised this year's UK growth forecast to 1.3 percent from 1.1 percent, holding 2027 and 2028 at 1.2 and 1.5 percent; the British economy posted the best first-half growth among G7 economies. Government bond yields, meanwhile, have risen to their highest in decades ahead of Finance Minister John Healey's October 28 budget, lifting government borrowing costs.
Source: Reuters global economic poll, October 15, 2026 (GSM, based on Reuters reporting)
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 英格兰银行 Threadneedle Street 总部。geograph.org.uk · CC BY-SA 2.0
