First Prediction-Market Insider-Betting Case Heads to Trial: U.S. Soldier Accused of Winning Over $400,000 on Polymarket With Maduro Raid Secrets
U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of using classified information about the operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to win more than $400,000 on the prediction market Polymarket. The Justice Department says it is the first criminal insider-trading prosecution involving a prediction market. On October 7, U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett in Manhattan heard arguments on the defense motion to dismiss the indictment; her ruling is pending, and the trial is scheduled to begin on December 7.
Van Dyke, 38, is an active-duty soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, who took part in planning and carrying out Operation Absolute Resolve, the January 3 raid in Caracas that captured Maduro and his wife. According to the Justice Department and court filings, Van Dyke signed a nondisclosure agreement covering the operation on December 8, 2025, opened a Polymarket account using a VPN on December 26, and between December 27 and January 2 placed 13 bets totaling about $33,034 on contracts including whether Maduro would be out of power by January 31. After the raid became public, the bets returned $409,881 in profit. Prosecutors also allege that he later asked the platform to delete his account and moved the proceeds through overseas cryptocurrency accounts to conceal their origin.
Van Dyke faces three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, carrying a combined maximum potential sentence of 60 years. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and is free on a $250,000 bond. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has brought a parallel civil case against him, which has been stayed pending the outcome of the criminal proceeding.
Announcing the charges in April, U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton of the Southern District of New York said the defendant allegedly used classified information about a sensitive military operation to bet on the timing and outcome of that very operation to turn a profit, adding: "That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law." Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said at the time that service members are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their missions as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using it for personal financial gain.
In a July 31 motion to dismiss, the defense argues that event contracts traded on Polymarket are not "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that classified military information is not "property" for wire-fraud purposes. Prosecutors opposed the motion in August and wrote to the court on September 30 arguing that binary event contracts are swaps under the law. Judge Garnett's ruling on the motion will determine whether the case proceeds to trial as scheduled.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 位于曼哈顿的 Daniel Patrick Moynihan 联邦法院大楼，本案在此审理。照片：Ken Lund 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经维基共享资源／The Daniel Patrick Moynihan U.S. Courthouse in Manhattan, where the case is being heard. Photo: Ken Lund, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
