New Fox News Poll: Texas Senate Race Tied 49%-49% Between Paxton and Talarico
A new Fox News poll released October 21 shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each at 49% among likely voters in the closely watched Texas U.S. Senate race, a dead heat. Compared with the previous Fox poll, in which Talarico led 51% to 49%, support has slipped; poll analysts attribute the change mainly to Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed John Cornyn in the primary.
The poll was conducted October 15-19 among 2,011 registered voters and 1,398 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points among likely voters, and was conducted jointly by Democratic polling firm Beacon Research and Republican firm Shaw & Company. Among key groups, Talarico leads big with Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28) and college-educated women (+23); Paxton leads among white evangelicals (+52), white men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and voters 65 and older (+18). The key Latino vote is flowing back to Democrats: supporting Talarico 64% to 34%, and backing Democratic control of the Senate by 29 points. On party loyalty, 98% of Democrats support Talarico and 90% of Republicans support Paxton, while nearly three in ten non-MAGA Republicans have defected to Talarico.
Other October polls mostly show a close race: the University of Houston Hobby School poll (October 18) had Talarico ahead 48% to 46%; Marist (October 14) 47% to 45%; UT/Texas Politics Project (October 13) 50% to 47%; and UMass Lowell (October 8) tied at 45% each. Early voting is under way in Texas, and Election Day is November 3.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 德州议会大厦 / Texas State Capitol, Austin — Farragutful, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
