AP Analysis: Early Voting Surges in States Deciding Senate Control, With Over 13 Million Ballots Cast Nationwide
Early voting is running well ahead of the last midterms in many of the states expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of advance ballots cast through Tuesday, two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. Nationally, more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast, compared with about 9 million at the same point in 2022.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% from the same point in 2022, with ballots cast reaching nearly 1 million, up from roughly 550,000. Kansas has more than doubled its early turnout, with more than 55,000 ballots cast versus about 27,000 in 2022. Maine is up 39%, and North Carolina and Ohio have each seen increases of more than 30%, with Ohio casting about 156,000 more ballots than in 2022. The AP noted the increase also reflects a few states that expanded early voting opportunities and others that made more data available since the last midterms.
Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of those states, and in most of them Republicans account for a smaller share of advance voters than they did in 2022, the analysis found. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. In Kansas, a state President Donald Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton; Republicans have put close to $12 million into the state, and Trump held a rally there on Monday. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing for the seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a primary runoff. In Maine, five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Total spending on the Ohio Senate race will reach close to $500 million, according to AdImpact, and Ohio has eliminated its grace period for receiving mail ballots since 2022.
Advance voting has not risen everywhere: totals in Michigan and Georgia are high but similar to four years ago, and early voting in Iowa is down about 6%. The AP pointed to dissatisfaction with Trump's tariffs, the persistently high cost of living, and high gas and diesel prices caused by the Iran war as sources of political blowback against Republicans. Midterm elections typically favor the party out of power in Washington; Republicans now control the White House and both chambers of Congress, a different environment from 2022, when Democrats were in charge.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 美国一处提前投票站外竞选标牌资料图。照片：Edward Kimmel 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Campaign signs outside a U.S. early voting location (file photo). Photo: Edward Kimmel, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
