Study: 50,391 Heat-Related Excess Deaths Across 854 European Cities in Summer 2026, About 65% Attributed to Human-Caused Warming, the Highest on Record
A study by researchers at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, published in Nature Health, estimates that 50,391 people died from heat-related excess mortality across 854 European cities between June and August 2026 (95% empirical confidence interval 46,026 to 53,878). That is the highest summer figure on record under this methodology, above 29,480 in 2022 and 28,462 in 2003, and more than double the 24,572 estimated for 2025.
The 854 cities are home to about 173 million people, only about 40% of the population of the 30 countries covered, so the true burden across Europe will be higher. The researchers estimate that 32,619 of the deaths were attributable to human-caused climate change, about 65% of the total. The largest share were people aged 85 and over, at 22,502. Around a third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1, when average daily temperatures across the cities ran 5.3°C above the 1991-2020 mean. Southern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate at 380 per million people, with Malta, Italy, Hungary and Croatia among the highest rates; in absolute terms Italy had the most deaths, an estimated 13,303.
Official national figures broadly align with the modelling. Santé publique France reported 5,764 heat-related excess deaths between June 17 and July 2; Germany's Robert Koch Institute estimated about 16,000 from early April to early September; Spain's mortality monitoring system reported 5,123 for June to August; and England and Wales saw an estimated 2,124 in the single week of June 21 to 28. The EuroMOMO mortality monitoring network's provisional estimate put Europe-wide excess deaths above 32,000 in just the period from mid-July to mid-August. The researchers caution that the figures are modelled estimates rather than death-certificate counts, that their method assumes heat vulnerability is constant through the year, and that the results are likely conservative.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed that summer 2026 was Europe's third-hottest summer on record and western Europe's hottest. The study estimates that, in a counterfactual climate without human-caused warming, Europe would be about 2.5°C cooler than it is today. The researchers say 2026 was probably Europe's most dangerous summer yet.
(Source: Imperial College London)
Source: Imperial College London
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：西班牙耶萨水库在干旱中水位下降的滩涂，欧洲南部是2026年夏季热浪的重灾区。Basotxerri 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The drought-lowered shore of the Yesa reservoir in Spain; southern Europe bore the brunt of the summer 2026 heatwaves. By Basotxerri, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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