USC Poll: Connie Chan at 41% Trails Scott Wiener 47% in Race for Pelosi Seat, Within Margin of Error
San Francisco, San Francisco County, California: A poll released October 25 by the USC Center for the Political Future’s democracy and equity election lab shows State Senator Scott Wiener leading San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan 47% to 41% in the race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Congress, a six-point gap within the poll’s margin of error.
Poll director Christian Grose, a USC political science professor, noted that language barriers may make Chinese-only-speaking voters harder for pollsters to reach, which could benefit Chan. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, Wiener rose to 51% and Chan to 44%. Among Asian American and Pacific Islander respondents, 31% backed Chan and 59% backed Wiener, though Grose cautioned that finer ethnic breakdowns were not released because of small subgroup samples.
Chan has a track record of outperforming her polls: before the June primary, three polls showed her roughly tied with another candidate at about 20% each, yet she finished second with 29.7% of the vote. Pelosi has endorsed Chan, but among respondents who strongly approve of Pelosi, 54% backed Wiener and 46% backed Chan. Grose said the email-based poll is only a snapshot, and the difficulty of reaching some language communities leaves the outcome hard to predict.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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