Fed Preview: Rates Expected to Hold at 3.75%–4.00% at October 27–28 Meeting; Warsh Press Conference in Focus
The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27–28, with the rate decision due at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, followed by a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh. According to a KPMG meeting primer published October 22 and a Reuters poll, nearly all economists expect the FOMC to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% this week while penciling in another hike in December; rate futures have priced the odds of a hold at roughly nine in ten.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September — its first hike in three years, approved unanimously — and most participants at that meeting judged that one more increase by year-end would likely be appropriate. Consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, and sticky inflation remains the core reason officials are in no hurry to ease. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have both signaled little urgency, while Governor Chris Waller, though hawkish, has said action is not needed at every meeting. Cleveland's Hammack, Dallas's Logan and Minneapolis's Kashkari dissented from the July hold, underscoring the committee's hawkish wing.
For borrowers, a hold keeps borrowing costs pinned near current levels: Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32% in the week ending October 22, down only slightly from the 52-week high of 7.40%. If Warsh leans into a December hike at the press conference, Treasury yields and the dollar could push higher; if he softens that signal, bets on cuts next year will build.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 美联储总部埃克尔斯大楼。Photo: Federal Reserve, public domain
