US Leading Economic Index Flat at 99.6 in September as Consumer Expectations Slide; Conference Board Sees 2.2% GDP Growth in 2026
The Conference Board reported on October 22 that the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) was unchanged in September 2026 at 99.6 (2016=100), following a 0.1% decline in August. An upward revision to July's data left the index at a higher level than in the previous report, and the LEI grew 0.6% over the six months from March to September, reversing a 1.1% decline over the prior six months.
Five of the LEI's ten components made positive contributions in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing. Those gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits. "The LEI's six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.3% in September to 115.3, with all four components — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production — contributing positively. The Lagging Economic Index rose 0.5% to 121.1. The Conference Board raised its outlook and now expects real GDP to grow at a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with 2027 at 2.0%. The next LEI release is scheduled for November 19.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 纽约证券交易所（资料图）。Photo: Arild Vågen, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
