Follow-Up: Israel Exit Polls Put Likud First With 25 Seats, but Neither Bloc Reaches the 61 Seats Needed to Govern
Israel held elections for the 26th Knesset on October 27, filling all 120 seats in the country's first national vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. After polls closed at 10 p.m. local time, exit polls released by Israel's three major television networks projected that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would emerge as the largest party with 25 seats, while his right-wing and religious bloc was projected at 50 seats in total, short of the 61 needed to form a government.
The exit polls projected 23 seats for Yashar, the party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys, and 21 seats according to Kan 11. The main opposition parties were projected at 53 seats combined and Arab parties at 17, leaving neither major bloc with a majority. The opposition and Arab factions together would hold 70 seats, though that does not mean they would agree to form a government together.
Turnout was exceptionally high. Israel's Central Elections Committee reported that 55.7 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots by 4 p.m. local time, the highest figure recorded at that hour since measurements began in 1973, with long lines reported at polling stations across the country.
The exit polls are preliminary projections, not an official count, and the seat distribution could change as ballots are tallied in the coming days; official results are scheduled to be published by November 4. Once results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will consult with the parties and nominate the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government; that candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. Netanyahu's outgoing government remains in power until a new government takes office, and his political future will turn on weeks of coalition negotiations despite Likud finishing first.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：位于耶路撒冷的以色列议会大楼。本届议会组成将由计票结果决定。照片：Agmonsnir，CC BY-SA 4.0，经维基共享资源。 / The Knesset building in Jerusalem, Israel. Photo: Agmonsnir, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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