World Bank: Western Balkans Growth to Reach 3.1% in 2026, Halving Trade Barriers Could Lift GDP by Up to 12.5%
The World Bank released its Western Balkans Regular Economic Report in Vienna on October 27, projecting that the six economies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia will grow by an average of 3.1% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025, and by 3.4% in both 2027 and 2028, with lower trade costs identified as key to creating more jobs.
Trade in goods and services reached 107% of regional GDP in 2025, above the European Union average of 90%, the report notes. But beyond average goods tariffs of about 6%, non-tariff measures add an estimated 10% in tariff-equivalent costs, and 20% to 30% in some sectors, while restrictions on commercial presence are estimated at about 17% and cross-border services restrictions at about 29%. Only about one-third of new export relationships survive their first year, and just 1% to 4% reach year five. The Bank estimates that removing half of the remaining barriers could raise regional GDP by up to 12.5% over the medium term.
Xiaoqing Yu, the World Bank's Division Director for the Western Balkans, said trade integration has already delivered substantial gains for the region, but firms still face barriers that make it costly to move goods, services and investment across borders; cutting them would unlock growth and more and better jobs for local people.
The report is the Bank's regular economic assessment of the six Western Balkan economies, covering growth, trade, employment and the reform agenda.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德的圣马尔科教堂。Petar Milošević 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / St Mark's Church in Belgrade, Serbia. Photo by Petar Milošević, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
