U.S. GDP Grew at 3.4% Annual Rate in Third Quarter: BEA Advance Estimate Up From 2.2% in Second Quarter, Led by Investment and Consumer Spending
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the Department of Commerce, released its advance estimate in Washington on October 29: real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026 (July through September), up from 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Current-dollar GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were increases in investment, consumer spending, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared with the second quarter, the acceleration primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending, partly offset by a downturn in exports, while imports increased more than in the second quarter.
The increase in investment primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment and equipment. Within private inventories, wholesale trade and manufacturing, both led by nondurable goods industries, were the largest contributors; within equipment, information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripheral equipment, led the increase.
Consumer spending rose in both services and goods. Within services, health care, mainly hospitals and outpatient services, and food services and accommodations, mainly purchased meals and beverages, led the increase; within goods, other nondurable goods, mainly prescription drugs, led.
Within government spending, the increase was more than accounted for by federal spending, led by nondefense consumption expenditures. BEA said the pattern mainly reflected sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: sales were smaller in the third quarter than in the second, and because sales are deducted from government consumption expenditures in the national accounts, smaller sales register as an increase in consumption expenditures, with no direct effect on GDP itself.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.6 percent in the second quarter.
On prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.6 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with 5.0 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.5 percent, compared with 3.3 percent.
Real GDP rose 0.8 percent at a quarterly rate. BEA will release the second estimate for the third quarter, together with corporate profits, on November 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST, and the advance figures are subject to revision.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：美国经济分析局（BEA）2026年第三季度实际GDP初估官方图表，显示季度环比年化增速。来源：美国商务部经济分析局 BEA 官方发布（美国政府公共领域） / Chart: BEA official chart for the advance estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (public domain).
