Poland Flash Inflation Falls to 3.5% in October, Below Forecasts, as Fuel Prices Drop 9.7% on the Month to the Top of the Central Bank's Target Band
Statistics Poland (GUS) published its flash estimate on October 30 showing that consumer prices in Poland were 3.5% higher in October 2026 than a year earlier, down from 4.1% in September and below the 3.7% consensus forecast, returning to the top of the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) 1.5% to 3.5% target band.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4% in October, a larger decline than the 0.2% expected.
Fuel drove the monthly drop: prices of fuels and lubricants for private transport fell 9.7% from September, although they remained 21.7% above their level a year earlier, down from 31.6% in September. Analysts linked the fall to the return of a fuel tax relief programme on October 3.
Other components moved in opposite directions: food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 0.3% on the month but were 0.1% cheaper than a year earlier, while electricity, gas and other fuels rose 1.6% on the month and 6.0% on the year.
ING estimates that core inflation excluding food and energy fell below 3% year on year in October, from 3.1% in September; that figure is an analyst estimate, as the GUS flash release does not publish a core rate.
The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decides on interest rates on November 4. The figures are a flash estimate, with the full October breakdown due in mid-November. Readings elsewhere in Europe the same day diverged: Italy's flash inflation jumped to 5.4%, France's rose to 3.4%, and Spain's held at 4.9%.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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