Italy GDP Flat in Third Quarter: Annual Growth Slows to 0.8% as Services and Farming Offset an Industrial Drop
Italy's National Institute of Statistics (Istat) published its preliminary estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on October 30: GDP, expressed in seasonally and calendar-adjusted chained volume terms with reference year 2020, was unchanged from the previous quarter, a 0.0% reading that fell short of the 0.1% increase economists had expected.
From a year earlier, GDP rose 0.8%, slowing by two tenths from the second quarter's 1.0%. The quarterly path has been losing momentum through the year: growth of 0.3% in the first quarter eased to 0.2% in the second before stalling in the third.
On the supply side, the flat quarterly reading was the net result of opposing movements: value added rose in services and in agriculture, while it fell in industry.
On the demand side, domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth and net foreign demand a negative one, leaving the total unchanged.
Calendar effects were sizeable: the third quarter of 2026 had four more working days than the previous quarter and one more than the third quarter of 2025, and 2026 as a whole has three more working days than 2025.
The carry-over, or acquired, growth rate for 2026 stood at 0.8% at the end of the third quarter on a calendar-adjusted basis, meaning the economy would still grow 0.8% over the full year even if GDP were flat again in the fourth quarter. Italy's government this month raised its 2026 growth target to 1%, a goal that on these figures would require a clear pick-up in the final quarter.
Istat noted that the preliminary estimate is released about 30 days after the end of the quarter using the same procedures as the full quarterly national accounts, and remains subject to revision; Eurostat's euro area release the same day likewise listed Italy as flat on the quarter.
Istat also reported on October 30 that Italy's flash inflation jumped to 5.4% year on year in October, leaving the economy with the difficult combination of stalled growth and re-accelerating prices. The full release is available from Istat, preliminary estimate of GDP, third quarter 2026.
Related: Euro Area GDP Grows 0.4% in Third Quarter, Beating Forecasts
Related: Italy Flash Inflation Jumps to 5.4% in October
Related: Spain GDP Grows 0.6% in Third Quarter: Annual Rate Rises to 2.7%
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：意大利 Milan 的 Porta Nuova 商务区天际线（资料图）。Francesco Ungaro 摄，CC0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The Porta Nuova business district skyline in Milan, Italy (file photo). Photo by Francesco Ungaro, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
