Canada GDP Flat in August, Missing the Forecast Rise: Retail Up 1.2% Offset by a 1.4% Wholesale Drop, September Seen Down 0.1%
Statistics Canada published its gross domestic product by industry figures on October 30. Real GDP was essentially unchanged in August, at 0.0 percent month over month, below both the agency's earlier advance estimate of a 0.2 percent increase and economists' expectations of 0.2 percent growth. It was the second consecutive flat month for the Canadian economy, with July revised to 0.0 percent as well.
Only 9 of the 20 industrial sectors expanded in August. Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1 percent while services-producing industries edged down 0.1 percent, leaving the total hovering at the zero line.
Retail trade carried the month, rising 1.2 percent, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers at 1.8 percent, food and beverage retailers at 1.3 percent and general merchandise retailers at 1.5 percent. Manufacturing rose 0.3 percent as machinery manufacturing jumped 3.8 percent and petroleum refineries rose 4.2 percent, partly offset by a 3.1 percent drop in transportation equipment manufacturing. Rail transportation grew 3.6 percent, and finance and insurance rose 0.2 percent.
The main drag was wholesale trade, down 1.4 percent and the largest detractor in August, with motor vehicle and parts wholesalers plunging 4.4 percent. The public sector aggregate fell 0.2 percent and utilities fell 0.4 percent.
The forward-looking figures were softer still. Statistics Canada's advance estimate puts September real GDP down 0.1 percent, as declines in manufacturing and in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction were only partly offset by gains in utilities and wholesale trade. On that basis the Canadian economy expanded 0.3 percent in the third quarter overall, well below the second quarter's 0.8 percent pace. The official third-quarter estimate and revised September figures are due November 30.
The data landed two days after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2.5 percent this week: two flat months and a visibly weaker third quarter, set against tariff- and energy-driven inflation pressure, frame the dilemma facing the central bank's next decisions. The full release is available from Statistics Canada, GDP by industry, August 2026.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：加拿大 Toronto 天际线与 CN Tower，前景为 GO Transit 列车与在建工地（资料图）。Bernard Spragg 摄，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Toronto's skyline and the CN Tower in Canada, with GO Transit trains and construction in the foreground (file photo). Photo by Bernard Spragg, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
