Kilauea's Episode 56 Lava Fountaining Forecast for November 3-10 as the Summit Keeps Inflating
The summit eruption of Kilauea, on Hawaii's Big Island, remains paused, and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said in its daily update on the morning of October 31 that, based on slow and steady summit inflation, the forecast window for episode 56 lava fountaining is now November 3-10, 2026.
The Halemaumau eruption has been episodic since December 23, 2024, with fountaining episodes generally lasting less than 12 hours, separated by pauses of two or more weeks. Episode 55 ran from 3:19 a.m. to 9:03 a.m. Hawaii time on October 17, sending lava fountains about 720 feet (220 metres) high from the north vent and a plume to roughly 25,000 feet. The eruption has been paused for two weeks since.
Summit tiltmeters have recovered a total of 16.2 microradians of tilt since episode 55 ended, including about 0.8 microradians in the past 24 hours, indicating the magma chamber continues to repressurise slowly. Overnight, intermittent strong glow and occasional spatter were seen at a merged southwest vent and at the north vent, and seven earthquakes below magnitude 1.5 were recorded at the summit in the past 24 hours. Sulphur dioxide emissions during the pause typically range from 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and light trade winds were carrying volcanic gases southwest toward Kau on Saturday morning.
Kilauea's volcano alert level remains at ADVISORY and its aviation colour code at YELLOW. The observatory cautioned that the build-up to episode 55 differed substantially from earlier episodes — it was preceded by 39 days of intermittent lava overflows, the longest precursory period of this eruption — so uncertainty remains over whether the next episode can be forecast precisely. The observatory remains in contact with Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency.
Related: Kilauea Begins Its 55th Eruptive Episode
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：基拉韦厄火山本轮喷发序列第14次喷发（2025年3月20日）的熔岩喷泉，高约200米，与当前暂停中的 Halemaumau 喷发同属一轮（资料图）。USGS／M. Patrick 摄，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / A roughly 200-metre lava fountain during episode 14 (March 20, 2025) of Kilauea's ongoing eruption sequence, the same Halemaumau eruption that is currently paused (file photo). Photo by USGS / M. Patrick, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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