New Zealand: Advance Voting Under Way as Two Polls Point in Opposite Directions Before November 7 Election
Advance voting is under way in New Zealand ahead of the general election on Saturday, November 7, with advance voting running until Friday, November 6. The two most recent major polls point in opposite directions, with no clear winner or coalition grouping, so post-election negotiations are likely to decide the next government.
The RNZ-Reid Research poll, published on October 28 after surveying 1,000 eligible voters online between October 20 and 26, put Labour on 30.6 percent and the governing National Party on 24.8 percent, with the Greens on 14.5 percent, ACT on 10.1 percent, New Zealand First on 9.9 percent and the Opportunity Party on 7.2 percent, its highest result in the series. On those figures Labour, the Greens and Opportunity would hold 64 seats in the 120-seat parliament, against 54 for National, ACT and New Zealand First combined.
The 1News-Verian poll released on October 27 told a different story, putting National on 29 percent and Labour on 27 percent, with a seat projection of 61 for the National bloc against 56 for Labour, the Greens and Maori parties, and Opportunity on eight seats potentially holding the balance of power. The polls also disagreed on preferred prime minister: Labour leader Chris Hipkins led Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 23.3 to 17.1 percent in the RNZ poll, while the Verian poll put Luxon ahead 24 to 18 percent.
Both polls place the Opportunity Party above the 5 percent threshold, which would bring it into parliament for the first time. The September Ipsos Issues Monitor, surveying 1,003 New Zealanders, found inflation and the cost of living the top concern at 63 percent, followed by healthcare at 44 percent, the economy at 34 percent and unemployment at 21 percent. Preliminary results will be released from 7pm on election night, with official results due on November 27; enrolment closed at midnight on October 25.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 照片：新西兰议会蜂巢楼，Paasikivi 摄，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0 授权 / Photo: the Beehive, Wellington, by Paasikivi, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
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