Final Pre-Election Polls: Democrats Lead in All Seven Senate Battlegrounds, With an 11-Point Edge in Michigan
WASHINGTON: The New York Times and Siena University released their final round of midterm polling on November 1, showing Democratic Senate candidates leading their Republican opponents in all seven battleground states that will decide control of the Senate: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The Democratic leads range from 1 point to 11 points.
The midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, with 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats on the ballot. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47; Democrats must defend every seat they hold and flip a net four Republican seats to retake the majority.
The largest lead is in Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53 percent to 42 percent, an 11-point margin that is the widest of the seven states. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent; Texas last elected a Democratic senator in 1988.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 44 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian David Graham at 4 percent; Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932.
The remaining two races are nearly tied: in Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola edges Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 percent to 46 percent, and in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Representative Ashley Hinson 48 percent to 47 percent, a single point. Only the Michigan and Texas leads clearly exceed the sampling error; the other five races remain statistical dead heats.
“Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas (5), Ohio (5), Maine (6), Texas (7), and Michigan (11),” said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute. “In Alaska Peltola leads Sullivan by 2 points and Iowa is virtually tied. Now, it’s time for all votes to be cast and the counts to speak louder than the polls. While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.”
According to The New York Times' reporting on the polls, only 38 percent of likely voters across the seven states approve of President Donald Trump's job performance, even though he carried five of the states by double digits in the 2024 presidential election; on the cost of living, Democrats lead Republicans by 9 points across the seven states combined.
In the same round of polling, Democrats lead the governors' races by 8 points or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan: Jocelyn Benson leads John James 52 percent to 39 percent in Michigan, Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles 49 percent to 37 percent in Maine, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson 54 percent to 46 percent in Alaska, where the governor's race uses ranked-choice voting, and Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn 51 percent to 43 percent in Iowa. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy 49 percent to 43 percent in Ohio, while the Kansas and Texas governors' races are close, with Gina Hinojosa edging Texas Governor Greg Abbott 48 percent to 47 percent.
The surveys were conducted from October 23 to November 1 among likely voters in each state. The margin of sampling error ranges from plus or minus 3.4 points in Texas to 5.0 points in Alaska, and is plus or minus 1.6 points across all seven states combined. Levy is available to discuss the findings starting at 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Monday, November 2.
Related: Michigan Senate race twist: Stevens appears with Republican candidate Rogers at a Detroit church
Related: Follow-up: Federal judge dismisses Justice Department's Alaska lawsuit over ballot certification
Related: Final Maine poll: Jackson leads Sen. Collins 52 to 47 (GSM, based on the Siena Research Institute release and New York Times reporting)
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 美国国会大厦西立面全景（Noclip 摄，经 Wikimedia Commons，公共领域） / The west front of the U.S. Capitol (photo by Noclip, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
