Final NYT/Siena Polls Before US Midterms: Democrats Lead in Six of Seven Senate Battlegrounds, Trump Approval at 38%
WASHINGTON: The United States holds its 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The final round of New York Times/Siena University polls, released on November 2, shows Democratic candidates leading in six of seven key Senate battleground states and effectively tied with Republicans in the seventh, with President Donald Trump's job approval at 38 percent among likely voters across the seven states.
In Michigan, the only Democratic-held seat among the seven surveyed, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53 percent to 42 percent, an 11-point margin and the largest in the group. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent. In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 44 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by the same 49-to-44 margin. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola edges Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 percent to 46 percent, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is effectively tied with Republican Ashley Hinson, 48 percent to 47 percent.
Five of the Democratic leads are in states currently held by Republicans, including Texas and Kansas, which have not elected Democratic senators since 1988 and 1932 respectively. Compared with September surveys, Democrats improved their position in six of the seven states: Maine moved from a three-point Republican lead to a six-point Democratic advantage, Michigan's Democratic lead widened from five points to 11, and Kansas moved from a tie to a five-point Democratic lead. Alaska was the only state where Democrats lost ground, their advantage narrowing from about seven points to about two. Across the seven states, Democrats held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on handling the cost of living, the issue respondents ranked among their top concerns alongside the economy.
Nationally, a RealClearPolling average of surveys conducted through October 30 shows Democrats leading Republicans 52 percent to 43.1 percent on the generic congressional ballot, while an NBC News survey conducted October 28-30 put the gap at 52 percent to 45 percent. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report's latest ratings place 222 House districts in categories favoring Democrats and 195 favoring Republicans, with 18 classified as toss-ups.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and the results will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress for the remaining two years of Trump's second term. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority; a 50-50 split would leave Republicans in control because Vice President JD Vance can cast tie-breaking votes. A House majority requires 218 seats.
Early voting has already set a midterm record: according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, more than 51 million Americans had voted by Saturday, October 31, surpassing the entire early-vote total of 45.9 million from the 2022 midterms.
The New York Times/Siena polls were conducted from October 23 to November 1, surveying between 610 and 1,215 likely voters in each state, with margins of sampling error ranging from 3.3 to 4.8 percentage points. The surveys also found that voters who made their decisions during the preceding month favored Republicans by nine points, a reminder that late shifts could still matter in races separated by only a few points.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 美国国会大厦西立面与格兰特纪念碑（资料图）。Mike Peel 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The west front of the U.S. Capitol with the Ulysses S. Grant Memorial in Washington, D.C. (file photo). Photo by Mike Peel, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
