CDC 2026-27 Respiratory Season Outlook: Combined COVID, Flu and RSV Hospitalization Peak Expected Near Last Season's Level
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects the combined peak in hospitalizations from COVID-19, influenza and RSV in the 2026-2027 fall and winter respiratory disease season to be similar to last season's, within 20 percent of the 2025-2026 peak, with low to moderate confidence, according to its 2026-2027 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook. The CDC updated the outlook in mid-October and promoted it again on October 29, stressing that the assessment, covering the October-through-May season, offers a high-level baseline for how the season could unfold and is not a forecast.
For influenza, the CDC expects a season of moderate severity across all ages, with low to moderate confidence. Early surveillance is already moving: the CDC's FluView report for the week ending October 10 put clinical laboratory test positivity for influenza at 5.0 percent, up from 3.9 percent the week before, with the highest activity on the West Coast. Of the influenza A viruses subtyped by public health laboratories, 96.4 percent were A(H1N1)pdm09, and antigenic testing found the circulating H1N1 viruses well matched to this season's vaccine strain. The CDC characterizes overall activity as low, higher than typical for this point in the season but within expected seasonal variation.
For COVID-19, scenario modeling indicates that if no variant with moderate immune-escape properties emerges, the peak weekly hospitalization rate will be 1.4 to 2.5 per 100,000 people in early to mid-January, similar to or lower than last season. If such a variant does emerge, the peak could rise to 2.8 to 6.7 per 100,000 in late January 2027. For RSV, the peak weekly hospitalization rate is expected to land within 20 percent of last season's, with moderate confidence; last season's RSV peak came unusually late, in the week ending February 21, 2026, which the CDC says may signal another late peak this season.
On immunization, the CDC recommends an annual flu vaccine for everyone 6 months and older. For RSV, it recommends a single lifetime dose of RSV vaccine for all adults aged 75 and older, and for adults aged 50 to 74 who are at increased risk of severe RSV disease. The agency cautions that a new immune-evading variant, more severe strains, or lower vaccine uptake or effectiveness than last season could push the combined peak higher, and says it will update the outlook as disease trajectories change.
CDC 2026-2027 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 甲型H1N1流感病毒电镜图（资料图）。NIH Image Gallery 提供，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Influenza A (H1N1) virus under electron microscopy (file photo). Image: NIH Image Gallery, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
