Storm Prediction Center: Marginal Severe Storm Risk Over the Mississippi Valley on Election Day, About 20.6 Million People in the Risk Area
The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said in its Day 1 convective outlook issued on the afternoon of Nov. 3 that parts of the central United States, from the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, are under a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Election Day. The risk area covers about 268,216 square miles and a population of roughly 20.59 million, including Memphis, Nashville, St. Louis, Shreveport, Des Moines and Little Rock.
Thunderstorms from the Sabine Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley northward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley could produce isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two on the afternoon and night of Nov. 3, the center said, putting the tornado probability at 2 percent and the damaging-wind probability at 5 percent within the risk area. The outlook runs through 12:00 UTC on Nov. 4 (6 a.m. Central).
In its afternoon update, the center said several supercell structures and bowing segments had been observed across northwest Louisiana, with the strongest storms expected to spread east into the Ark-La-Miss area through the evening and the threat possibly continuing overnight into western Tennessee and western Kentucky.
Nov. 3 is Election Day in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. According to USA Today's summary of National Weather Service forecasts, northern California will see rain on Election Day, with the weather service's Bay Area office forecasting 0.10 to 0.50 inch in the North Bay and possible evening thunderstorms; southeast Florida still faces a threat of heavy rainfall, while most of the rest of the West stays sunny to partly cloudy.
(Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center)
Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：超级单体雷暴笼罩 Kansas 一处农场上空（美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家强风暴实验室供图，公共领域）。 / A supercell thunderstorm over a farm in Kansas (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, public domain).
