South Africa's Debt-to-GDP Peak Revised Down to 74.6% as GDP Revision Lifts Nominal GDP by 5.1%
South Africa's National Treasury said in a statement on November 5 that Statistics South Africa's (Stats SA) 2026 rebasing and benchmarking of gross domestic product (GDP) data has increased the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1% (R393 billion). The Treasury has updated key fiscal ratios following the GDP revision announced by Stats SA on October 29.
Based on Stats SA's updated numbers, the debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 74.6% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, down from the 78.4% estimated in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), and the ratio falls below 70% by 2032/33, a year earlier than forecast in the MTBPS.
Other key fiscal ratios have also declined: the primary surplus is now 1.6% of GDP in 2026/27, compared with 1.7% in the MTBPS, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30, compared with 2.9%; and the main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3.7%. On average, the consolidated budget deficit improves by 0.2 percentage points of GDP for the current fiscal year and over the medium term, while the main budget primary surplus is revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the medium term.
The National Treasury said the revised ratios do not reflect changes to government's revenue, spending or debt projections, and that the 2027 Budget will provide further details, including updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections.
National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said: "Our updated calculations confirm that government continues to achieve its fiscal targets, with the fiscal metrics looking even better than we had projected based on Statistics South Africa's revised GDP data. We are restoring fiscal credibility and South Africa is seeing the benefits in lower borrowing costs and a stronger foundation for investment and growth."
The Treasury said the benchmarking exercise uses improved data and methods to incorporate major changes in the economy's structure into GDP calculations, ensuring they more accurately reflect its size and composition. It noted that Stats SA's five-yearly benchmarking exercises have often increased the estimated size of the economy but have seldom impacted economic growth rates meaningfully, and that the higher nominal GDP figure reduces fiscal ratios that use it as the denominator.
(Source: South African National Treasury)
Source: South African National Treasury
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