NPR: Low Birth Rates and Immigration Enforcement Are Emptying America's Public Schools, With 40 States Affected
LOS ANGELES — U.S. public schools are facing a sustained fall in enrollment, National Public Radio reported on November 6: low birth rates had already been driving pupil numbers down for years, and tighter immigration enforcement is now accelerating the decline, with school districts in 40 states affected and some campuses facing closure.
According to U.S. Census data, the population of children under 18 began falling after 2010, dropping by roughly 2.1 million kids through 2025. According to the U.S. Department of Education, the number of children in public schools nationwide peaked in 2019 and had fallen by roughly 1.5 million students as of the 2024 school year; federal researchers project a further fall of at least 2 million by 2030, about 7 percent nationally in roughly a decade.
The Los Angeles Unified School District, the second largest in the country, has lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades. School board member Kelly Gonez said enrollment declines worsened after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids escalated in the city in 2025: "Many of our families immediately went into hiding," she said. "We were predicting a 2% drop in enrollment. It was double that." District officials say low birth rates and the loss of immigrant children in classrooms mean school campuses will likely have to close.
A study by the Migration Policy Institute found that as many as 1.9 million people left the United States during the first 18 months of Donald Trump's second term, and federal officials weakened restrictions that prevented immigration officers from operating near public schools. Thomas Dee, a Stanford University economist who studies education policy, said this is the first time in nearly a century, since the era of the Great Depression, that birth rates and immigration levels are low at the same time: "Communities are now confronting very painful decisions about closing schools."
A report published in June by the research groups Bellwether and WestEd warned that public schools have entered an era of "sustained" enrollment decline, reshaping districts in 40 states; the report found the main driver remains the long fall in birth rates, followed by a national slowdown in immigration, and predicted a loss of 11 billion dollars a year in school funding. The Brookings Institution estimates that as many as 4.6 million school-age children live in households with family members vulnerable to deportation. Texas saw the number of children in classrooms plunge statewide last year by more than 76,000 students.
The White House presents the trend very differently: spokeswoman Lauren Bis said deportations make American classrooms less crowded, and pointed to a September administration post celebrating a fall of 2.9 million in the foreign-born population between January 2025 and July 2026.
Source: NPR
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：洛杉矶联合学区总部大楼。图片来源：Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 3.0。 / Photo: Los Angeles Unified School District headquarters. Photo: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.
