USDA's October Outlook Raises 2026 Turkey Production to 5,134 Million Pounds, About 6 Percent Above 2025's 4,844 Million, While Frozen Hen Prices Stay High at 184.0 Cents a Pound; the Federal FoodSafety.gov Thanksgiving Page Was Updated on November 9
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS), in its Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook dated October 16, raised its 2026 turkey production forecast by 35 million pounds to 5,134 million pounds. The report's table lists 2025 turkey production at 4,844 million pounds, making the 2026 forecast about 6 percent higher. Fourth-quarter 2026 production, the quarter that includes Thanksgiving, is forecast at 1,320 million pounds, against 1,242 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The report describes no supply shortage; the next outlook is due November 17, and Thanksgiving Day is Thursday, November 26.
On prices, ERS said weekly prices for frozen whole hen turkeys remain elevated, with bids averaging 184.0 cents per pound in the week ending October 2; the 2026 annual average is 175.5 cents per pound, the fourth-quarter average is forecast at 175 cents, and the 2025 annual average was 135.8 cents. ERS also raised its 2026 turkey export forecast by 20 million pounds to 461 million pounds. August turkey slaughter was 17.0 million head, 4.5 percent more than August 2025, and turkey eggs in incubators on September 1 totaled 25.2 million, up 2.0 percent. On avian influenza, ERS recorded two commercial turkey cases in August affecting 119,300 birds and eleven cases in September across Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota affecting 544,900 birds; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on October 15 that the current public health risk is low.
The federal FoodSafety.gov Thanksgiving page was updated on November 9. Citing the USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the page states that a turkey may be thawed in the refrigerator, in cold water or in a microwave — about 24 hours for every five pounds in the refrigerator and about 30 minutes per pound in cold water — that a turkey should never be thawed on the counter or in hot water or left at room temperature for more than two hours, that washing or rinsing meat and poultry is not recommended, that an oven should not be set lower than 325°F (163°C), and that a turkey is ready at a minimum internal temperature of 165°F (74°C) measured with a food thermometer in the thickest part of the breast, the innermost thigh and the innermost wing. The USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline is 1-888-674-6854, staffed 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern, Monday through Friday, and 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Eastern on Thanksgiving Day.
来源链接：联邦食品安全门户感恩节问答（foodsafety.gov，2026-11-09 更新）： https://www.foodsafety.gov/blog/thanksgiving-day-will-be-here-soon-and-its-time-get-ready ；美国农业部 ERS《畜牧、乳品与禽类展望》2026年10月期数据（经 USDA 数据汇编页转录）： https://www.preparedstates.com/guides/thanksgiving-food-shortages
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