Fannie Mae Cuts 2027 Mortgage Origination Forecast to $1.86 Trillion, Sees 30-Year Rate Averaging 7.5%
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group cut its forecast for 2027 single-family mortgage originations in its October housing outlook, reducing the total from $2.27 trillion in the September outlook to $1.86 trillion, a decline of about 18%, after raising its interest-rate assumptions.
The new outlook expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% in every quarter of 2027. The September outlook had started from an August 31 rate reading of 6.66%, while the October outlook starts from a September 30 reading of 7.03%.
By component, 2027 refinance originations were cut from about $802 billion to roughly $430 billion, while purchase originations are forecast at about $1.4 trillion, roughly flat with 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to hold around 5.3% through 2026 and 2027.
Fannie Mae’s monthly Economic and Housing Outlook, produced by its Economic and Strategic Research Group, is among the most widely cited institutional forecasts in U.S. housing finance.
(Source: Fannie Mae)
Source: Fannie Mae
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 房利美总部大楼照片（CC BY-SA 3.0；Wikimedia Commons）/ Fannie Mae headquarters (CC BY-SA 3.0; via Wikimedia Commons)
