Nature Climate Change Regional Warming Study: Up to 94% of Regions Have Passed 1.5 Degrees Celsius Above Preindustrial Levels, Canada and Much of Europe Are Beyond 2 Degrees, and the Russian Arctic Reaches 3.3 Degrees
A study published in Nature Climate Change provides the first analysis of human-caused warming on a regional scale by filling in data gaps for regions that lack historic climate observations. Eos, of the American Geophysical Union, reported the study on November 9, 2026.
The authors, including researchers at the University of Victoria, analyzed in-region climate observations, global climate observations, and simulations of past climate change for dozens of regions referenced in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to estimate warming in places without complete historical records.
After filling in the gaps, the researchers found that the current climate has already breached 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming since preindustrial times in up to 94% of regions. Some regions have warmed faster: in Canada and large portions of Europe, temperatures have already warmed more than 2 degrees Celsius, in some very high-latitude regions warming exceeded 2.5 degrees, and the Russian Arctic has warmed 3.3 degrees Celsius.
As background, the report cited a global average warming of about 1.44 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times. Francis Zwiers, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria and coauthor of the study, said at a press conference that today global mean climate is already statistically indistinguishable from a one and a half-degree warming world.
The authors also projected that under the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5, global average temperatures will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2029 and 2 degrees Celsius in 2042. Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter who was not involved in the research, wrote in a commentary for Nature Climate Change that people are effectively already living in a 1.5-degree world.
来源： https://eos.org/research-and-developments/many-regions-have-warmed-beyond-1-5c-and-some-beyond-2c-new-study-finds
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: Wikipedia/Wikimedia Commons 词条主图：Climate change denial
