30-Year Study of Great Limpopo Elephants: 20 of 21 Subpopulations Grew, 2024 Estimate Put at 64,051
A study published in Scientific Reports on November 13 collated and modelled a 30-year time series for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA), which comprises 19 protected areas and 21 subpopulations across Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and South Africa.
The researchers sought to determine whether these subpopulations can regulate their numbers without management interventions. Because the wildlife is shared across international borders among multiple institutions and monitoring happens at different times, the team fitted growth models to each subpopulation's 30-year record and evaluated trends in density-dependent effects.
Over this time period, the team found that 20 subpopulations increased in size. Their regional synthesis estimated that there were 64,051 elephants (95% confidence limits: 58,532 to 70,040) in the GLTFCA in 2024.
The authors report that the elephant population is increasing, although not uniformly across space, producing a mosaic of change across the conservation area. They say dispersal opportunities have been restored, and that resource availability and risks are likely shaping population regulation.
The paper, by Guldemond, Ferreira, Ernst and colleagues, was received on May 30, 2026, accepted on November 6, 2026, and published on November 13, 2026, with the digital object identifier 10.1038/s41598-026-80436-x. Permission to use the elephant population data was obtained from the authorities responsible for the protected areas, who shared the data with the researchers.
The GLTFCA is one of southern Africa's major transfrontier conservation landscapes and includes well-known protected areas such as Kruger National Park. The study provides a three-decade regional baseline for monitoring a wildlife population shared by three countries.
Source: Scientific
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：航拍镜头下的一群非洲草原象。来源：USAID Africa Bureau, Public domain，维基共享资源。 / Photo: An aerial view of a herd of African savanna elephants. Credit: USAID Africa Bureau, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
