Spain's Official Pre-Election Poll: Socialists Lead at 33.3%, PP and Vox Together Short of a Majority
Spain's Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) has published its large pre-election survey: the Socialist Party leads with an estimated 33.3% of the vote, which would give it between 134 and 143 of the 350 seats in Congress. The People's Party is put at 25.5%, or 98 to 106 seats — well down from its current 137 — and Vox at 18.4%, or 57 to 65 seats. On these numbers, the PP and Vox together would still fall short of the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority. The poll became a central talking point on November 13, the first day of the campaign.
The study is based on 45,074 telephone interviews conducted between October 7 and 30 across 4,190 municipalities in all 50 provinces plus Ceuta and Melilla, making it one of the centre's largest pre-election exercises. Among other parties, Frente Amplio is estimated at 4.7%, Republican Left of Catalonia at 3.1% and Podemos at just 1.1%. Pedro Sánchez is the preferred choice for prime minister of 33.2% of respondents.
The fieldwork ended in late October, so it does not capture November events such as the transport minister's resignation, and its findings differ sharply from the average of private polls, which puts the PP ahead at about 31% to the Socialists' 27%. CIS president José Félix Tezanos has publicly defended the study's methodology. The definitive answer comes at the ballot box on November 29.
(Source: Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), Spain)
Source: Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), Spain
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：位于马德里的西班牙众议院大楼。Javier Perez Montes 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Congress of Deputies building in Madrid. By Javier Perez Montes, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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