Final Midterm Forecasts: Every Model Favors Democrats for the House, While the Senate Stays Close
The 2026 midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 House seats up for election. In the final stretch, polling averages, forecast models and prediction markets agree on direction while differing on size: Democrats are favored to regain the House, while the Senate is much closer in every source.
For the House, RealClearPolling's generic congressional ballot average has Democrats up 8.3 points nationally (covering September 28 to October 19), and the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released October 27 put Democrats ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters. Decision Desk HQ's forecast model, updated October 29, gives Democrats an 80% chance of winning the House and projects 238 Democratic seats. The Cook Political Report projects a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats, putting the party at 227 to 237 seats; in its October 23 ratings, Democrats were already favored in the 218 seats needed for a majority. On prediction markets, Polymarket US priced Democrats at 93% and Kalshi at 92% to win the House, as of October 31.
For the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats to 47 for Democrats and the independents who caucus with them; because a 50-50 tie is broken by the Republican vice president, Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. Decision Desk HQ's model gives Democrats a 60% chance of taking the Senate and projects 52 seats, while Polymarket US and Kalshi both price the chance at 68%. The Cook Political Report lists seven Senate races as Toss Ups — six Republican-held seats and one Democratic-held seat in Michigan — and projects Democratic gains of two to six seats.
The generic ballot measures national party preference without naming candidates; House control is decided district by district, so a wide national margin can shrink into a modest majority. Prediction market prices reflect traders' bets rather than surveyed voters. The outcome will be settled by the votes cast and counted on November 3.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：位于华盛顿的美国国会大厦西立面（资料图）。Architect of the Capitol 摄，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The west front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington (file photo). Photo by the Architect of the Capitol, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
