Brazil's Campaign Closes With Lula Narrowly Ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro and a Runoff in Sight
Brazil's presidential campaign formally closed on Thursday, October 1, setting up a first-round vote on Sunday, October 4, between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Reuters reported on October 1 that Lula was expected to finish narrowly ahead in a 13-candidate field, but was unlikely to win the majority of valid votes needed to avoid a runoff on October 25.
The latest Datafolha estimates published that Thursday put Lula at 42 percent of first-round voting intentions against 38 percent for Bolsonaro. France's Le Monde noted the unusual geopolitical weight of the race: the 80-year-old Lula spent the campaign warning against foreign interference, stressing Brazilian sovereignty in his September 22 address to the United Nations in New York, while U.S. President Donald Trump told American reporters on October 1 that he was watching the vote very closely.
Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted last year of plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat and is serving a prison sentence — a prosecution that has enraged conservatives in Brazil and abroad and hangs over the whole contest. Analysts told Reuters that Lula's camp treats Brazil's trade relationship with China and independence from Washington as assets, while the Bolsonaro family has used its Washington ties to try to level the electoral playing field.
Beyond the presidency, voters on October 4 will also elect governors in Brazil's 26 states and the federal district, renew the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate, and choose state legislative assemblies. The combined result will set the political direction of Latin America's largest country for the next four years.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：巴西利亚纪念轴与国会大厦。摄影：Cayambe，CC BY-SA 3.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons
