Third-Place Finisher Cury Endorses Bolsonaro as Runoff Poll Shows a Technical Tie
The battle for endorsements in Brazil's presidential runoff gained a major name on Thursday, October 8. Reuters reported that Flavio Bolsonaro announced the backing of Augusto Cury, the author-psychiatrist who finished third in Sunday's first round, for the October 25 runoff against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro shared a video of Cury announcing the endorsement, following local media reports of his support.
Cury, of the Avante party, won 2.89 percent of valid first-round votes. He has avoided identifying with either left or right, campaigning under the slogan centered on what matters, and his voters skew toward the disaffected middle — making his endorsement one of the most consequential of the runoff. Former Goias governor Ronaldo Caiado had already endorsed Bolsonaro, while Renan Santos has said he will endorse neither candidate.
The same day, Datafolha released its first runoff poll: Bolsonaro at 49 percent of voting intentions to Lula's 45 percent, with 5 percent planning a blank vote and 1 percent undecided. Reuters noted the margin of error of plus or minus two points makes it a technical tie. The survey interviewed 2,520 people in person on October 6–7; expressed in valid votes, the split was about 52 percent to 48 percent.
Pollsters' first-round underestimate of Bolsonaro has put every runoff survey under scrutiny. Both campaigns are now concentrating on big states such as Sao Paulo and on the voters who stayed home in the first round — turnout on October 25 may be the runoff's hidden deciding variable.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（右）与律师瓦塞夫在记者会。摄影：Agência Senado，CC BY 2.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
