AARP/Gotham Poll: Mamdani Leads NYC Mayoral Race at 43.2%, but Lead Shrinks to Margin of Error if Sliwa Drops Out
A new poll released on October 20 by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leading the New York City mayoral race with 43.2% support, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, at 28.9%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%, with 8.4% undecided or preferring another candidate, according to CBS News New York. The survey of 1,040 likely voters, conducted over two days, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
The race tightens sharply in a two-way matchup: if Sliwa dropped out, Mamdani would lead Cuomo 44.6% to 40.7%, a gap within the margin of error, with nearly 15% undecided. If Cuomo were the one to drop out, Mamdani would lead Sliwa 46.8% to 31.5%.
Sliwa has flatly refused to quit. “I'm not dropping out,” he said. “One person, one vote. That's how we determine elections.” Cuomo had said last week that Sliwa's continued campaign would hinder his chances of defeating Mamdani, but on Monday he said on Fox News that Sliwa is “irrelevant.”
The poll also found that 78% of undecided voters are age 50 or older, a bloc both campaigns are courting in the final stretch. Asked about their top concerns, 63.6% of voters named the cost of living, 48.6% public safety and 38.9% housing affordability. With early voting about to begin, the race is entering its final two weeks.
Source: GSM · America
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：马姆达尼在纽约法拉盛街头竞选（资料图）。照片：InformedImages，CC BY 4.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons。Photo: Zohran Mamdani campaigning in Flushing, New York (file photo). Photo: InformedImages, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
