Follow-Up: Brazil Votes in Tight Presidential Runoff: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro in a Race That Could Reshape the Region
Brazilians headed to the polls on Sunday, October 25, in a tight presidential runoff that could shift Latin America's largest nation sharply rightward, bringing it closer to the United States, or hand the incumbent president another term, Reuters reported from São Paulo. The runoff pits leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro.
According to Reuters, polls show the candidates practically tied going into the runoff, with Lula closing the gap in the final days. Historical precedent favors Bolsonaro: no candidate has ever won the presidency after coming second in the first-round vote. Bolsonaro took 47% of ballots in the first round earlier this month, against 45% for Lula, defying pollsters; his first-round win sent Brazil's markets and currency soaring on expectations of pro-business reforms, and his Liberal Party and other right-wing politicians made parallel gains in congressional elections, which could pave a legislative path for him or complicate governance for Lula.
Bolsonaro is 45. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was convicted in 2025 of plotting a 2022 coup, and Flávio has pledged to free his father if elected. President Donald Trump has called the case a "witch hunt" and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, a decision explicitly linked to Jair Bolsonaro's trial; while many of those tariffs were later watered down, Trump unleashed new levies against Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices. Lula has cast the Trump administration's proximity to the Bolsonaro clan as part of an attempt to sway the election, labeling tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying; Washington denies meddling charges.
On economic issues, despite falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over an electorate grappling with high living costs and heavy household debt. Endemic gang violence also weighs on voters' minds. Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns and has promised a heavy-handed approach to fighting crime, pledging maximum-security jails and chemical castration for serious sexual offenses. A Bolsonaro victory would extend a wave of right-wing victories in Latin American candidates friendly to Trump, while a fourth, non-consecutive mandate for Lula would disappoint Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. GSM reported on October 23 that the latest pre-runoff poll put Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula, 47% to 46%, with voting on October 25; the voting day itself is the new development, and results will emerge as counting proceeds.
Source: GSM·USA
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 巴西总统卢拉官方肖像。图片：Palácio do Planalto，CC BY 2.0 — via Wikimedia Commons
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