240 Seats in Reach: Cook Political Report Moves 12 More House Races Toward Democrats, Projecting a Flip of 12 to 25 Seats
The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election forecaster, on October 30 moved 12 more House races toward Democrats and said it now projects that Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats in the November 3 midterm elections, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House.
Under the updated ratings, if Democrats win the seats they are favored in, along with all 18 Toss Ups, they would have 240 seats. As the House battleground map has expanded, Cook said, Democrats now have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009. They will not reach the 257 seats they held following Barack Obama's election, a high-water mark for them this century, but they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue-wave cycles.
Cook also said President Donald Trump's approval rating is underwater even in deep red seats that he won comfortably in 2024, and that heavy spending from Republicans does not appear to be moving the needle. If the bottom completely falls out for Republicans, Cook said, Democrats could flip some seats in the Lean Republican and Likely Republican columns as well, and Republicans are particularly concerned about turnout in places like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where Democrats are poised to win statewide races by comfortable margins.
In its official publishing channel the same day, Cook also moved two Senate races: Nebraska's Senate race moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Florida's Senate contest moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Erin Covey, Cook's U.S. House editor, wrote that under the updated ratings Cook is projecting that Democrats flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House. Those figures are the forecaster's analytical judgments, not election results or guarantees; the final outcome will be decided by voting on November 3.
Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to regain control of the House. The Cook Political Report describes itself as an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, governorships and the presidency, as well as American political trends.
Source: Cook Political Report, October 30
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：位于Washington的美国国会大厦西立面全景。照片：Noclip，公共领域，经Wikimedia Commons。 / The west front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington. Photo: Noclip, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
