Thailand: Central Bank Holds Rate at 1 Percent and Raises Growth Forecast to 2.4 Percent for 2026
The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on October 28 to keep the policy rate at 1 percent, its fourth consecutive meeting without a move, and raised its growth forecasts: the Thai economy is now expected to grow 2.4 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027, up from June projections of 2.3 percent and 1.8 percent, the central bank's assessment published in recent days showed, citing stronger technology exports and private investment.
The committee forecasts merchandise export values rising 22 percent in 2026 and 15 percent in 2027, with private investment up 13 percent in 2026 and moderating to 7.6 percent in 2027. Merchandise exports rose 24 percent year on year in September as electronics benefited from the global super intelligence (SI) investment cycle, while imports climbed 50.4 percent on fuel and capital goods. Headline inflation is forecast to average 2.1 percent in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027.
The Bank of Thailand warned that growth remains below potential and that the benefits are concentrated among a small number of technology-linked companies and workers. Businesses reliant on domestic consumers face weak demand, intense competition and structural constraints: household consumption is forecast to grow just 2.3 percent in 2026, below the June forecast of 2.6 percent, and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises contracted 1.4 percent year on year in August.
MPC secretary Don Nakornthab said overall growth remains below potential and the benefits remain concentrated, and the committee judged that an accommodative stance and targeted financial measures were supporting the recovery. Its next meeting is scheduled for December 23. Separately, new Bank of Thailand rules on large cash transactions took effect on November 1, requiring financial institutions to conduct enhanced customer checks on qualifying transactions of 5 million baht or more.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 照片：泰国曼谷湄南河拉玛八世大桥，Dominic Nelson 摄，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0 授权 / Photo: Rama VIII Bridge over the Chao Phraya River in Bangkok, Thailand, by Dominic Nelson, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
