Pennsylvania's School-Age Population Shrinks More Than 3% in Five Years as the Older Population Surges and the Structural Deficit Nears $5 Billion
In Harrisburg, Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, a new report from the state Independent Fiscal Office shows the state's school-age population shrank by more than 3% in the five years ended in 2025 and will shrink at even greater rates through 2035, while the 'advanced age' category grew by nearly 10% over the same period and will keep growing at 18% or more.
By age group, the population aged 10 to 14 is projected to fall from about 775,000 in 2020 to 684,000 in 2035, while those aged 80 to 84 are projected to rise from about 291,000 to 496,000. The working-age population of 20- to 64-year-olds, the source of a large share of state tax revenue, also shrank in the latest five-year period and is expected to keep shrinking.
The report says the Legislature that begins a new two-year session in early 2027 will confront a structural deficit of roughly $5 billion, with demographic change adding pressure on school funding, health care and older-adult services. Nathan Benefield, chief policy officer at the Commonwealth Foundation, said a growing elderly population adds to Medicaid and long-term care costs while a declining working-age population crimps revenue, underscoring the long-term fiscal challenge. The report's data run through 2025, with projections to 2035.
(Source: The Center Square)
Source: The Center Square
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：位于哈里斯堡的宾夕法尼亚州议会大厦。w_lemay 摄，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Pennsylvania State Capitol in Harrisburg. By w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
