East Coast Election-Eve Polling Overview: Sherrill Leads by 3.3 Points in New Jersey, Spanberger by 8.9 in Virginia, Mamdani by 14.7 in New York City
WASHINGTON, November 2 — Voters on Tuesday, November 3, will elect the governor of New Jersey, the governor and attorney general of Virginia, and the mayor of New York City. RealClearPolitics polling averages show Democratic candidates leading in all three places, though the New Jersey governor's race and the Virginia attorney general's race remain competitive.
In New Jersey, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 3.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average; every poll in the average shows Sherrill ahead, though three polls put her lead at just one point. The analysis notes that in 2021, Ciattarelli trailed then-Governor Phil Murphy by 7.8 points in the final average but lost by only 2.8 points; a similar swing would give Ciattarelli a chance, though betting markets give him only a 17 percent chance of winning.
In Virginia, former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by 8.9 points in the average, with even the closest poll showing Spanberger ahead by four points; betting markets favor Spanberger 96 percent to 5 percent. In the lieutenant governor's race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi has a 92 percent betting chance against Republican John Reid. The attorney general's race is tighter: Democrat Jay Jones led by four to seven points in September polls, but after leaked texts in which he joked about shooting former House Speaker Todd Gilbert surfaced and he apologized, Republican incumbent Jason Miyares moved ahead and now leads by 1.6 points in the average; only two of the 12 polls since the scandal did not show Miyares leading, one tied and one with Jones up two points, with betting markets at 55 percent to 45 percent for Miyares.
In New York City, Democratic candidate and State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani leads former Governor Andrew Cuomo by 14.7 points in the average, 45.8 percent to 31.1 percent, with Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17.3 percent; betting markets now give Mamdani a 94 percent chance, after Cuomo at one point held an 80 percent chance.
(Source: RealClearPolling)
Source: RealClearPolling
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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